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08 August
2008 Toledo
Basketball Point Shaving - Behind the
Numbers Former Toledo
basketball player Sammy Villegas has been charged
with point-shaving. The indictment
references games from the 2004-05 and 2005-06
seasons. A closer look at the numbers tells a
fuller story. The main game in
question was played between Toledo and Central
Michigan on February 4, 2006. Toledo was a 15-point
favorite, and won the game by 16 to just barely
cover the point-spread. Villegas played 21 minutes,
taking only 1 shot the entire game - and missing
both his free throw attempts. During the two
seasons in question, Toledo basketball had a
winning record (30 winners; 26 losers) against the
Las Vegas point spread - which would be surprising
if rampant game fixing had occurred; by definition,
a fixed game is when a player purposely plays
poorly so his team loses against the betting
spread. If the
allegations are true, this is one incident of many.
RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: "Academic studies
indicate that over 5% of college basketball teams
favoured by double digits engage in some form of
corrupt game manipulation." "Of all teams in
recent years, those Toledo basketball games had by
far the strongest buzz around Vegas that something
funny was going on." said RJ Bell of
Pregame.com. The case comes
approximately 12 months after a Toledo football
player was accused in a sports betting scheme,
though the charges against him were later dropped.
RJ Bell of Pregame.com widely reported that during
the 2005 Toledo football regular season, SEVEN
games had lopsided enough betting on one team to
move the point spread by at least 2 points; those
seven teams were undefeated against Vegas - meaning
that the big-money gamblers won a perfect 7 of 7
times on games involving Toledo; the odds of that
happening randomly were 128 to 1
against. |
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