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30 January 2009

55% Betting Cardinals Over Steelers In Super Bowl XLIII

Each year, the Super Bowl is the largest single-day Sports Betting. More than $10 billion dollars is projected to be wagered on Super Bowl XLIII, by over 200 million punters worldwide.

RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: "Based on bet data from a polling of sportsbooks, 55% of bettors have backed Arizona to date, with only 45% backing Pittsburgh."

The single best possible Super Bowl betting advice is, if you like Arizona, play +7 on the point spread. If you like Pittsburgh, play minus 240 on the money line.

A noteworthy phenomenon occurs each Super Bowl: the moneyline odds for the game (i.e., no point spread considered - all that matters is which team wins) are significantly adjusted downward.

Typically, there's a standard conversation between point spreads and money lines. For example, if a team is favored by 7-points like Pittsburgh, the standard money line would be in the range of -330.

RJ Bell of Pregame.com said: "For the Super Bowl, because a disproportionate number of casual bettors want to 'take-a-shot' at the big underdog payoff, the moneyline is cheaper for the favorite and worse for the underdog than any other game of the year."

Some pro bettors, understanding that money lines are skewed downward for the Super Bowl, will back the favorite on the money line and, as a hedge, back the underdog on the point spread - creating an arbitrage.

This year, pros are betting Arizona + 7 and Pittsburgh -240 (instead of the typical -330 for a 7-point favorite). You don't have to bet both but if you want to bet like a pro, strongly consider playing the money line if you like the Steelers and the point spread if you like the Cardinals.

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